Latest UK Net Migration Figures to Have Little Impact on UK Immigration Policy

After much anticipation, the latest figures released by the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed net migration to the UK for the year 2022 was 606,000.

Albeit not as high as the 1-million figure that had been touted by some forecasters, the latest account of the net-immigration-driven-addition to the UK population exceeded the record 504,000 figure for the year to June 2022.

How Will the Latest Figures Impact the Direction of UK Immigration Policy?

They won’t. The current figures are constituted by cohorts of migrants that reflect the declared drivers of and constraints upon government thinking and action on immigration policy.

The more likely impact of the latest net migration figures is ‘policy status quo’ in the short and medium term.

If there is any change at all following the latest migration figures, it will take the form of some nuggets of further liberalisation (more provisions for short-term productivity) combined with some very marginal restrictions at the very outer edges which were already announced (targeting student dependents and migrants entering illegally on boats).

Net Migration: A False Target?

In 2010, David Cameron, then leader of the opposition, pledged that under a Conservative government net migration would be reduced to the “tens of thousands”. This was regarded by many as part of the fuel that ignited the ‘take back control’ mantra of the Brexit debate. However, in the immigration context, this mantra targeted workers entering the UK at whim: it was not an objection to foreign workers per se, let alone an objection to high skilled foreign workers needed by the UK who had been subject to entry controls.

The pledge made by the Conservative party in 2019 – that “overall numbers will come down” - was therefore perplexing: Brexit had by then been won and an immigration system that would ‘take back control’ [by subjecting all workers to UK immigration control – the current system we have] was in process.

[Further, according to the Ipsos issues index, the relative salience of immigration amongst the general public  in the UK has fallen  - the economy, the NHS, lack of faith in politicians are all ahead of immigration as the issue most salient in the minds of most British voters; whilst a new research document from the policy unit at Kings College London has concluded that the proportion of Britons who think employers should prioritise native -born workers over immigrants has halved from 69% in 2009 to 30% in 2022].

Accordingly, though the latest net migration figures present an opportunity to criticise numbers in the abstract by some quarters, in the detail such criticisms appear to have no current basis or support.

Net Migration – Nothing to Reduce

The numbers coming to the UK making up the net migration figures were mainly (over 80%) made of arrivals from outside the EU for work (25%), study (39%) and for humanitarian purposes (19%), including unique events such as those arriving from Ukraine and Hong Kong.

[At the same time as the ONS released its figures, UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) also published its quarterly update of migration statistics for the year and ending March 2023 which showed that out of the 3,057,654 visas granted, 20.6% (632,006) related to grants of study visas (including dependants); 15.9% (487,771) related to grants of work visas of which 69,423 were grants of ‘Skilled Worker’ visa (+59%) and around 101,570 related to grants of ‘Skilled Worker – Health and Care’ visas [to main applicants] (+171%); 7.36% (225,278) related to grants under the Ukraine schemes; and  there were a total of 139,144 out of country grants under the British National (Overseas) (BNO) visa route since its introduction on 31 January 2021 up to the end of March 2023 and 9,729 for quarter January and March 2023.]

These cohorts  reflect the success of the agreed post-Brexit sponsor worker immigration system (which as a quid pro quo for the UK losing unencumbered access to EU workers intentionally liberalised criteria designed to attract high skilled workers) representing the agreed ‘taking back control’;  political decisions in response to world events (accommodating Ukrainians and Hong Kong nationals) and which are not capable of control;  and low spending in public services and higher education funding (driving demand for foreign workers in social and healthcare categories and foreign students) which there is no appetite to increase or change in the short to medium term.

Government Thoughts and Actions

Though agreeing the net migration figures are high, the PM has not set out any timetable for reducing net migration and has not yet identified the acceptable number for legal migration.  When attending the latest G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, he made clear that the figure depended on the interests of economic growth and filling gaps in the labour market.

These comments are consistent with the fact the UK governments’ fiscal and growth plans as announced in the last two budgets rely upon Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) growth forecasts, which in turn rely on growth in net migration based on the continued operation of the current immigration system. The government has no choice but allow the net migration forecasts to play out because it needs it. 

Before the ONS figures were released the government had already announced policy tweaks for students, who will now only be able to bring dependants if they are studying in post grad research categories and who must complete a course before switching into a work category. This might make the UK unattractive to some, but is really tinkering with very small numbers, unlikely to produce enormous change to net migration figures.

Looking Ahead

We wait to see what immigration policy initiatives the government takes to address its notional concerns about numbers against the background of conflicting needs to grow the economy and fill shortages. But objectively viewed there is little prospect of any material change in policies now.

Indeed, the OBR thinks the UK’s net migration figure will settle to around 245,00 each year and so it is not sensible to take major policy decisions based on the assumption that current high net migration figures will continue. Additionally, given that there are accepted deficiencies in the data gathering process and accuracy of the stark figures presented, it further undermines their utility in guiding policy decisions.

It is therefore clear that the net migration figures do not reflect a loss of control, but instead an exercise of it. The cohorts making up the figures reflect those UK businesses need and who the government has for good reasons chosen to admit. The figures are high, but so is the need and imperative. There is certainly a case for improving recruitment of domestic labour, but solutions in the form of training are not immediate or even medium-term solutions, and certainly not silver bullets – we cannot assume those who are trained in the UK will necessarily stay in the UK. Both the government and the opposition appear to recognise this reality.  Ultimately if ambitions for growth and innovation are to be met, it would be foolish to assume this will be achieved by cutting the flow of migrants entering under the very system set up to achieve this.

Need to know more?

For further information, please reach out to Senior Manager Shuyeb Muquit at [email protected]

This blog was published on 21 June 2023, and due to the circumstances, there are frequent changes. To keep up to date with all the latest updates on global immigration, please visit our dedicated COVID-19 site, subscribe to our alerts and follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.