Analysis of Current Migration Trends in New Zealand

New Zealand is currently experiencing higher migration levels than normal, with all regions across the country reporting net gains in migrants in the July 2015 fiscal year. Economists have been kept busy analysing the effects of this unusually high activity and will be keeping an eye out for any effects this migration will have on labour capacity, productivity and the housing market

Visitors

Visitor arrivals to New Zealand surpassed 3 million for the first time in the July fiscal year, according to figures produced by Statistics New Zealand (www.stats.govt.nz). A record breaking 3,002,982 visitors this year represented a seven per cent increase over the  previous 12 months.

Interestingly, holiday visitors from China and the steady growth in visitors from Australia helped drive numbers steadily higher, with the US also being a significant contributor.

Permanent and long term migration

Seasonally adjusted permanent and long term (PLT) migration figures showed a record net gain of 5,700 migrants in July 2015. The increase was led by India, Australia, the Philippines, China and the UK, with a higher number of students, mainly from India, contributing to the spike in net migration in July 2015.

Whilst fewer New Zealand citizens are choosing to move to Australia, the seasonally adjusted net gain of 200 migrants from Australia was the highest level in over 20 years. The last time the trans-Tasman inflow was this high was in March 1991, when New Zealand experienced a net gain of 300 migrants. Australia’s resource-dependent economy has slowed, resulting in what may be a reversal in the economic fortunes of the two countries.   

Arrivals by visa type

The largest increases in migrant arrivals between July 2014 and July 2015 comprised:

• Student visas (up 7,300)
• Work visas (up 4,300)
• New Zealand and Australian citizens (up 1,900)

Fear of a ‘brain drain’ has pushed recent New Zealand governments to remain competitive in the international market for skilled migrants and has seen them embrace the permanency of the global work environment and necessary mobility of workers.

All the same, it remains a balancing act to ensure policies do not compromise the job prospects of New Zealanders, while allowing businesses to have access to the skills and talent they need. In a July 2015 keynote speech, Prime Minister John Key said, “We welcome migrants who can make a contribution to New Zealand and we value the benefits and opportunities that free trade agreements can deliver.” Immigration New Zealand’s vision for 2015 is to be recognised as a trusted partner, deliver outstanding immigration services, and bring in the best people New Zealand needs in order to prosper.

Economists are questioning whether, given this increase in migration, the construction rate of new dwellings is sufficient to prevent the existing shortage of housing from worsening. Tough new lending rules for property investors are intended to offset the demand issues resulting from higher numbers of migrants. However, some commentators take a different view, suggesting that New Zealand is in need of more rental properties to reduce overcrowding.

The August migration statistics will be released at the end of September and it will be interesting to see if they indicate that the current boom is set to continue.