Beyond Temporary Protection: Why Europe Needs Clear Exit Pathways

Temporary Protection Status (TPS) was designed as an emergency response for vulnerable third-country nationals, including displaced persons fleeing conflict. Across Europe, it has become a long-term reality, but without long-term certainty.  

In summer 2025, the European Council extended TPS until 4 March 2027. However, this framework does not provide clear pathways to permanent residence as time spent under TPS does not count towards EU long-term residence and its continuation depends on geopolitical developments beyond individual or employer control.  

Across the European Union (EU), Member States have implemented the extension at national level, reinforcing TPS as a recurring feature of the regional migration landscape rather than a short‑term exception.  

As the extensions on temporary protection continue, the central policy question is no longer whether TPS will end, but how Europe prepares for its exit.  

A Growing Population in Legal and Administrative Limbo 

TPS holders across Europe now live in prolonged legal and administrative uncertainty.   

• Time spent under TPS does not count toward eligibility for EU long‑term residence, leaving beneficiaries outside any durable residence pathway 

• Asylum or subsidiary protection is not a scalable alternative, as national asylum systems remain under significant pressure and outcomes depend heavily on individual circumstances 

• Renewal practices vary widely between Member States, creating administrative fragmentation and confusion  

• The continuation of TPS depends on geopolitical developments, beyond the control of individuals or employers  

For employers, this uncertainty translates directly into workforce retention risks and long‑term planning constraints. For individuals, it delays access to stability, family reunification and full participation in the host society. 

Transitioning Out of Temporary Protection: The Indispensable Next Phase 

Temporary protection will not end because conditions for return rapidly improve. It will end because the system was never designed to last long.  

Return is often presented as the end point, but for now it remains out of reach for many displaced persons. For example, although the European Council agreed in September 2025 on a common framework to support sustainable return and reintegration into Ukraine, the conditions for such a return are currently not in place.  

However, several pathways are already emerging across Europe in response. 

Conversion to local residence permits: From a labour migration perspective, in‑country conversion to standard employment‑based residence permits remains one of the most viable and sustainable options. A growing number of Member States, including Belgium, France, Italy, Germany, Spain and Latvia, already allow such conversions in practice. These mechanisms provide continuity of residence while integrating Temporary Protection beneficiaries into existing migration frameworks. 

Dedicated pathways for TPS holders: Some countries have opted for ad-hoc solutions. The Czech Republic has introduced a five‑year residence permit for individuals who have held temporary protection for at least two years and demonstrate economic self‑sufficiency. In Poland, Ukrainian nationals benefit from unrestricted labour market access through a notification process under the Special Bill. Additionally, TPS beneficiaries in Poland can apply for a new residence card (called CUKR Residence Card) via a simplified procedure, granting the right to work and to long-term residence permit eligibility.   

Bridge permits and transitional arrangements: Other models seek to ease the transition without fully exiting the temporary framework. In the Netherlands, temporary protection is expected to end on March 4, 2027, after which beneficiaries may apply for a three‑year temporary residence document, known as a Transition Document. While such measures provide short‑term continuity, they may also prolong legal uncertainty by introducing additional layers of temporariness. 

From Emergency Response to Sustainable Migration policy 

As temporary protection continues to be extended, the risk is clear. Without structured exit pathways, temporary may become the new normal—without delivering the stability that long‑term displacement demands. The next phase of European migration policy will be defined not by further extensions, but by the ability to convert temporary protection into sustainable and predictable futures. 

Why This Matters to Employers 

Extended reliance on temporary protection frameworks continues to create uncertainty for employers around workforce planning, renewal timelines and compliance obligations. As transition mechanisms become more common, early and structured planning is essential to maintain workforce stability and retain talent across the region. 

When developing a transition plan, employers should focus on the following: 

• Prepare in‑country transitions to work and residence permits early, as these processes often involve multiple administrative steps and long lead times 

• Assess complex cases proactively, particularly where individuals may not qualify for an in‑country change of status 

Need to Know More? 

For more questions about in-country change of status, as well as long-term planning, please reach out to the Fragomen Consulting Europe team at [email protected]. 

This blog was published on 22 May, 2026 and reflects information available at that time. Updates may occur as policies evolve. To stay informed on the latest immigration news and analysis, please subscribe to our alerts and follow Fragomen on  LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram.