Business Can Be the Winner in UK Election with Aligned Immigration Policy

If polls are to be believed, the opposition Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, is overwhelmingly likely to form the next UK government after its electorate votes in the general election set for 4 July 2024.

Whatever the outcome, the approach to immigration policy—especially once the election campaigning dust settles—is likely to be the same. For UK business, this translates as both continuity and opportunity. 

The Theory  

In his paper “Routes to Resolution” Jonathan Thomas, a senior fellow at the Social Market Foundation (who also penned the Fragomen-sponsored ‘Whole of the Moon Report’), aptly quoted what Gary Freeman said in his “Modes of immigration politics in liberal democratic states,” that states present themselves as running relatively restrictive immigration policies to placate their public, whilst in fact running relatively expansionary immigration policies to placate the most powerful interests of their business community and best serve the state’s economic ambitions.     

This theory was echoed in a Financial Times article. It highlighted that, in their approach to immigration policy, governments were grappling with a ‘trilemma,’ wanting to simultaneously maintain economic openness, respect foreigners’ human rights and fulfil their own citizens’ anti-immigration preferences.

The general point is that all parties handle the presentation and delivery of immigration policy similarly. They recognise the needs of businesses but moderate their open enthusiasm to align with changing public opinions.

UK Experience 

Such theories of approach—described as performative hostility—have been operationalised in the UK over the last 20 years (and to date) by governments of all political hues.  

In the early 2000s, then Prime Minister Tony Blair’s Labour government shifted from net zero immigration to “managed migration” for economic reasons, whilst toughening asylum policies and border controls.

This approach continued under Theresa May, who, as Conservative Home Secretary, combined it with controversial tactics like “go home” vans in London and the establishment of the ‘hostile environment.’ The Brexit campaign was aimed at restricting foreign entry to the UK, but Boris Johnson when he became Prime Minister is widely recognised as having eased visa rules for international students and health workers, and liberalised access to work routes generally in the introduction of the new ‘points-based system’ post-Brexit. 

Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservatives has continued to practice the theory but in an evolving form. He has focused policies tackling irregular migration and, in a nod to concerns around high net migration figures, introduced restrictions to the post-Brexit Immigration system – but calibrated with transitional provisions, and discreet exceptions whilst offering opportunities for revision through the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) reviews (as discussed here and here). The same modus can be seen in announcing the aim to introduce migration caps for certain sectors, subject to recommendations by the MAC based on need and, in turn, approval by Parliament.

Such policies have proceeded with limited objections by Labour in opposition—who have differentiated themselves only by committing to reviews of certain aspects of Conservative policy implementations and by calling for greater obligations on employers to improve training and investment in the UK domestic workforce in areas of shortage—as a quid pro quo for access to overseas labour pools.  

If there is any substantial difference between the parties, it is in their respective approach to irregular migration and not so much in their approach to legal work migration policies. 

Immigration Governance Post-Election 

As both leading parties message an intent to reduce net migration, focus on developing the domestic labour pool, and get a grip on irregular migration, the devil is in the details and execution of policy after the election.    

Whilst both major parties continue to be light on those details and performative hostility may permeate media interviews and speeches over the next few weeks, the next ruling party faces significant challenges and a call for business-friendly immigration policies to ensure UK businesses have access to wider overseas talent. 

Business Opportunity  

Indeed, compared to the 2019 election, business immigration is not considered the core issue by either party for the electorate—unlike concerns about numbers relating to irregular migration, social care and study.  

That’s an important difference, and perhaps an intentional one, that creates a potential business opportunity.  

Far removed from the spotlight, there is scope for much more sensible debate with the next government about what is the best immigration policy for business.  

Fragomen, in collaboration with the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), has recently outlined an ideal legal framework for migration policies and the considerations the next government should take to advance the best interests of UK businesses.

As noted in a previous article authored for LCCI, businesses have tremendous power and standing to drive immigration policy change—a standing that will grow and should be put into action post-election.   

Need to know more?

For election-related queries and related immigration updates, please contact UK Government Affairs Strategy Lead Shuyeb Muquit at [email protected].

This blog was published on 3 June 2024, and due to the circumstances, there are frequent changes. To keep up to date with all the latest updates on global immigration, please subscribe to our alerts and follow us on LinkedIn, X, Facebook and Instagram.